S’pore exports surge 20.9% in Oct
The Republic has narrowed the gap with its regional rival in the 2017 World Talent Report released by the Institute of Management Development’s World Competitiveness Centre. BLOOMBERG file photo.
SINGAPORE — Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) rose at a much stronger pace than expected in October, data from trade agency International Enterprise (IE) Singapore showed on Friday (Nov 17).
Economists interviewed said the Republic’s exports are likely to taper off in the final months of the year. Nevertheless, they added that the robust showing last month is expected to do enough to lift the 2017 full-year Nodx above the official forecast.
Nodx rose 20.9 per cent year-on-year last month, reversing from a 1.1 per cent fall in September, due to growth in both electronics and non-electronics exports.
Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the Republic’s exports to grow 10 per cent year-on-year.
Maybank Kim Eng economists Dr Chua Hak Bin and Ms Lee Ju Ye said: “Nodx showed a strong rebound in October as the decline recorded in the previous month proved to be a temporary blip… Today’s number shows a strong start to the fourth quarter, but this is partly due to low base effects from October last year. We expect the year-on-year growth to soften in the next two months as high base effects start to kick in.”
The upswing in Singapore’s exports began about a year ago, helped by growth in both electronics and non-electronics, said Ms Lee. While Nodx shrank by 2.8 per cent last year, it has been in positive territory so far this year, and the trend is expected to continue for the final quarter.
Exports grew by 15 per cent in the first three months of the year, and 3 per cent in the second quarter. For the third quarter, Nodx expanded by 7.6 per cent, and Ms Lee expects it to grow at a similar pace in the fourth quarter.
So far this year, IE Singapore has revised the official 2017 Nodx forecast thrice.
The first forecast was between -1 to 1 per cent. This was revised to 0 to 2 per cent in February, and subsequently raised to 4 to 6 per cent in May. The latest revision was in August when the forecast was changed to 5 to 6 per cent.
Ms Lee said another upward revision could be expected next week. She estimates full-year Nodx growth to be around 8 to 9 per cent.
Non-electronics exports led the pick-up in exports growth last month, jumping to 28.5 per cent from 1.9 per cent in September, said Nomura economists Euben Paracuelles and Brian Tan.
Shipment of electronics grew by 4.5 per cent in October, after an 8-per-cent decline in the previous month. Growth was helped by exports of integrated circuits, disk media products and personal computers.
ING economist Prakash Sakpal said: “With the seasonal product replacement cycle for flagship mobile devices coming to an end, the Nodx growth is likely to ease in the months ahead.”
IE Singapore data showed that exports to Singapore’s top 10 markets increased in October, except for Taiwan, Hong Kong and Indonesia. The largest contributors to the Nodx growth were China, the European Union and Malaysia.
